The Greatest water transfer project - a solution to Libya’s future water supply?

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The problem in Africa lies in the spatial unevenness of water resources and food supply due the complex physical, climate and human characteristics. You might have asked yourself, some areas have surplus water for domestic, industrial and agricultural use, why can’t you just transfer water from areas of surplus to areas of deficit?  (Salem, 2007) 


This is what Libya has done by implementing the world’s largest, most expensive water conveyance project in the world, drawing fossil water from ancient aquifers beneath the Sahara and transferring it along with a network of pipes to the northern coastal belt where water demands exist (Sternberg, 2016). The project is estimated to transfer more than 6 million m3 of water/day up north, and 70% of it is to be used for irrigation (Kuwairi, 2006).



Diagram of the GMMR project in  Libya    Source: Danmichaelo, 2011



The importance of GMMR in solving uneven water requirement 



Libya is one of the driest countries in the world, its aridity is reflected in 95% of the country receiving less than 100mm/year precipitation per year and some southern section completely rainfall (Kuwairi, 2006). The southern part of Libya is a desert area with sparse population density, but it sits in two large groundwater basins in the world, the Murzuk basin and Kufra-Sarir basin which has much greater estimated groundwater reserves than any other country on the continent (MacDonald, Bonsor, Dochartaigh, & Taylor, 2012). In contrast, ⅔ of the population concentrated in the coastal area in the north as a result of the presence of fertile land and mild climate, creating increasing demand for water for irrigation, domestic and industry use. The GMMR not only solves problems from uneven population distribution that results in the huge water supply deficit in the north but also concerns with seawater intrusion and over-extraction that deteriorates limited coastal aquifers located in the northern part of the country (Alker, 2008). 


a) Yearly average rainfall map
b) Major groundwater basins in Libya

                                                                                       

Problems of the water transfer project 


Despite the effectiveness in improving freshwater access for the demands in the north, water management remains unsustainable. Groundwater supplies more than 95% of the total water consumption in Libya, the aquifers in the South have no current recharge and therefore, are non-renewable  (Gjisbers and Loucks, 1999). As the population grows, more water will be required to satisfy their needs - the limited resources will be even more limited. Over-exploitation of fossil groundwater resources in order to meet the irrigation demands and achieve desired self-sufficiency in food will therefore prove disastrous in the future as non-renewable water in the aquifers will be depleted without adequate groundwater recharge (Wheida and Verhoeven, 2007). In essence, this supply-driven water management is hard to deliver water sustainability in Libya and threatens to destroy limited resources in the country. 



There are some other reasons that make mega-scale transfer projects like the GMMR unsustainable or unsuitable for other countries  (Sternberg, 2016)


  • Physical concerns include high evapotranspiration at reservoirs and resource depletion which leads to water loss

  • Government instability makes cost-effectiveness in the long run uncertain 

  • The project is designed in five phases, construction started in the 1980s but it is still unfinished, the extended timeframe makes future scenarios difficult to forecast and therefore it is not suitable for country’s with immediate needs 

  • As different stakeholders compete for limited supply, water demand and dynamics remain unpredictable

  • The cost and size and rights needed by megaprojects are great and often respond to political drivers but only those who are involved in the decision-making process are at the centre of the project




More thoughts on agricultural supply 


Successful water management requires careful attention to the highest consumptive sector - the agricultural sector, which makes up 85% of both present and expected future water demands but only contributes to less than 10% of the country’s GDP. The annual precipitation is limited and infrequent in the country, as the population grows, the water requirement for agriculture reliant on water transfer is simply too large for the dwindling non-renewable water resources. Thus from the water supply standpoint, absolute food security is practically unachievable (Salem, 2007). Therefore, in the next post, I will discuss the potential for alternative water management by trading “embedded water” in Libya.  



Demands for water will rise due to a growing population and rising standards of living. The deficit in water from the coastal area is currently covered by over-exploiting groundwater aquifers, which is considered unsustainable for its minimal agriculture achievement. To meet rising demands or secure food security in the future, the country needs to consider other water management practices e.g. virtual water, desalination. 






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